Darren

Currency chart

tjd

Was there a big swing in the Lira yesterday. I just logged on and my currency converter shows 2.40 to a £. Also Garanti Bank is showing 2.39.

Anyone know what's going on. I thought after the last few days with the dollar sinking to fresh lows against the Euro we were due for another £ bashing against the Lira.

Can anyone explain what's happening to me?

Cheers

Phil Johns

Are you looking at the internet banking rate as I am? this seems to be a slightly inflated rate. as a UK customer transfered money yesterday at a rate 2.35. I am told it is all about the textile industry and the drought last year??????

immac

YTL 2.49 and dropping against £ this morning.

Ian

guinevere

yes i saw it at 2.50 this morning on garanti site ,and lloyds are at 2.39 .so things are going the right way !

Tony

2.5 ytl to the pound and still dropping by the min.


tony

Darren

Any one thinking of taking advantage of high Turkish interest rates, currently about 15-18%, may like to get ready to to take advantage of further weakness of the Lira. At 2.20 Lira to the Pound, the pundits and their financial forecasts were saying the Lira was 10-20% over-valued on a trade weighted basis.That would put the Lira at 2.45 - 2.66 - close to where we are today at 2.48 - add a little more considering slowing EU growth coupled with Turkish export needs, and add in some more from political instability, and a precipitous decline in the Lira could present another buying opportunity of the sort that has produced excellent returns over the years. The last such opportunity was two years ago when the Lira declined to about 3.00 very briefly (see the chart Mushtaq very kindly put up on page 2 of this thread); anyone investing then would have achieved about a 30% currency gain and a 25% gain in interest income received over the subsequent 18 months - total return of 50% plus- not returns to sneer at. Turkish volatiliy is there to be enjoyed and profited from - provided you know what your doing...

Sweetnighter

Just a quick observation.
Surely the way forward for Turkey as I have seen over recent years is the steady as she goes ,prudent(nicked that from Gordon Brown) management of the economy,one of the reasons why the AKP won with a greater majority at the last election partic ularly from people from the East of Turkey who,from what I have read,are happy and better off.And with prudent management of an economy interest rates will fall this is one of the main aims of any economy.Interest rates in Turkey at 8-10% in 3 years 6-7% in 5 years.My interest rate at Garanti has reduced by 2.5% in 1 yearThat is what is slowly happening(Garanti only recenty reduced rates again)
Surely to rely on high interest rates indefinatly to live off is debateable

Karyn UK

Planning a long term retirement on plus 15% interest rates in Turkey is a bad idea. However as Darren points out you can sometimes do well by watching the currency rates and comparing interest rate trends with the stated aspirations of the government.

I remember the day the lira went over 3 to the £, I did well that day and bought at 3.02 just before the government stepped in and stopped the slide because it was dropping like a stone. I believe the lira is well over valued again and am watching it closely.

Karyn