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  Lira Exchange Rates
Old 19th August 2015, 14:41   #91 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

Turkey’s Lira plumbed a new record low against the U.S. dollar on Aug. 19 after the Central Bank failed to assuage investor concerns about its ability to defy political pressure and lift rates. The Bank signaled it will not raise borrowing costs before the rate hike move by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), rising concerns about the vulnerability of Turkish Lira and the unwillingness of authorities to defend it.

The lira has lost around 19 percent of its value against the dollar so far this year, making it one of the worst performing emerging market currencies.

Economists have said the Central Bank desperately needs to hike rates to defend the lira, but it has been unwilling to do so, drawing criticism it is in thrall to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has equated high rates with treason.

The Bank’s decision on Aug. 18 to keep rates on hold “undermines the inflation-flighting credibility of one of the least credible EM banks,” said Nicholas Spiro, of Spiro Sovereign Strategy.

A day after the policy-setting meeting, the Bank further frustrated investors with a presentation that suggested it would take its cue for rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve, according to some economists present.

Decision to be tied ‘Fed’s move’

“Generally speaking, the hikes in the policy rate in the coming months will be tied to Fed rate hikes,” Muammer Kömürcüoğlu, an economist at İş Invest who attended the meeting, told Reuters. “Hence the steps taken by the central bank in the coming period will be determined by the Fed.”

That did little to reassure investors who have been looking for the bank to act decisively and raise rates to put a floor under the lira.

The Bank also said on Aug. 19 inflation expectations had not yet reached “desired levels”, but did not give further details.

İş Invest’s Kömürcüoğlu said he believed the policy rate, currently 7.5 percent, could be raised as far as 9.5 percent in the next six months.

Underscoring the political pressure the Bank faces, one of Erdogan’s chief advisers, Cemil Ertem, shrugged off concerns about the lira’s chronic weakness, saying the currency had been helped by China’s devaluation of the yuan.

“There will be no crisis in Turkey no matter how high a level the dollar reaches,” he wrote in the pro-government Daily Sabah newspaper on Aug. 19.

The lira, was at 2.9110 to the dollar at 10.44 GMT, after earlier touching 2.9125, a new record.

It has hit a series of all-time lows since last week, when the ruling AK Party failed to find a junior partner to form a coalition government, exacerbating the political uncertainty.
August/19/2015

Turkish Lira plunges to new record-low as investor concerns rise - ECONOMICS
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Old 19th August 2015, 14:58   #92 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

Using rate hikes is a fairly blunt instrument; it can only be used once or twice without it starting to look like a panic response; linking it so tightly to the USD, as if they share some sort of common destiny, just feels strange: the USD is in a completely different position and to suggest that TL will be able to mirror whatever America does sounds like a hope rather than a strategy worth following.

And if rate hikes don´t work, do they have a Plan B: it does not sound like it.

Ian
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Old 19th August 2015, 15:34   #93 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

Maybe they should bring back Kemal Dervis CHP and ex World bank economist, who got Turkey out the last mess, and laid some solid foundations for them to follow, resulting in quite a few years of Turkey's economic boom.

Till this lot decided to ditch it down the line to let their leader ex bus ticket seller have a go in micro-managing it ,on Idelogical lines . Thats worked out NOT
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Old 19th August 2015, 20:22   #94 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

Quote:
Originally Posted by immac View Post
Using rate hikes is a fairly blunt instrument; it can only be used once or twice without it starting to look like a panic response; linking it so tightly to the USD, as if they share some sort of common destiny, just feels strange: the USD is in a completely different position and to suggest that TL will be able to mirror whatever America does sounds like a hope rather than a strategy worth following.

And if rate hikes don´t work, do they have a Plan B: it does not sound like it.

Ian
John Major's financial debacle a case in point.

Steve
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Old 20th August 2015, 15:58   #95 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

New lows on the GBP/TL rate this morning. It was around 4.65 to the GBP earlier today, but the TL has rallied this afternoon. Now around 4.57 to the GBP.

I've changed a few GBP into TL. But with the political situation still unpredictable in Turkey I reckon the TL could decline further.

Anyone else have any thoughts on that?
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Old 20th August 2015, 17:16   #96 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

Many people have already said the same in the previous 95 posts - with some thinking that the 5TL to the £ may be more than a possibility by the end of the year.
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Old 21st August 2015, 07:58   #97 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

This may sound a really silly question, but I would be interested to hear other peoples opinion. At the moment we are choosing to spend our lira which we have in the bank, as opposed to changing our sterling, which we want to keep, being the more stable currency, but other people seem to think it should be the other way round because of the good exchange rate. What are your thoughts? Sue xx
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Old 21st August 2015, 08:02   #98 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

My personal opinion? You're right!
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Old 21st August 2015, 08:04   #99 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

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Originally Posted by suecheshireuk View Post
This may sound a really silly question, but I would be interested to hear other peoples opinion. At the moment we are choosing to spend our lira which we have in the bank, as opposed to changing our sterling, which we want to keep, being the more stable currency, but other people seem to think it should be the other way round because of the good exchange rate. What are your thoughts? Sue xx
I am doing the same as you, so let´s hope it is the "right" thing to do. I even considered changing money back into pounds, but didn´t get round to it.

Ian
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Old 21st August 2015, 09:23   #100 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

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Originally Posted by immac View Post
I am doing the same as you, so let´s hope it is the "right" thing to do. I even considered changing money back into pounds, but didn´t get round to it.

Ian
Oh, at least it's not just me then lol. We don't have enough in lira to worry about changing it back to sterling. Xx
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