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Old 21st August 2015, 10:44   #101 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

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Originally Posted by suecheshireuk View Post
Oh, at least it's not just me then lol. We don't have enough in lira to worry about changing it back to sterling. Xx
I know the feeling.
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Old 21st August 2015, 12:11   #102 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

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Originally Posted by suecheshireuk View Post
Oh, at least it's not just me then lol. We don't have enough in lira to worry about changing it back to sterling. Xx
Nobody can tell you in advance what is right or wrong, you just have to make a judgement based upon the evidence as you see it; there are plenty who are wise after the event who will tell you what you should have done. On balance, it looks like the right strategy is to change pounds as needed.

There is nothing I see, written by any analyst, that predicts anything good for TL at the moment: probably the opposite is true.

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Old 23rd August 2015, 10:07   #103 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

Lots of gloomy thoughts on the Turkish economy on financial blogs. This is from an economist called Russell Napier who thinks Turkey could default on its foreign currency loans and trigger a global market collapse:

What could be the trigger for a credit crunch in emerging markets?
I have learnt from history that it is very hard working out what the trigger is. In 2008, it was the collapse of Lehman Brothers that triggered a credit crunch. Now it could be a major event in Turkey or a default of the Brazilian oil company Petrobras or some event in Malaysia. But if I have to pick one I would say it is Turkey introducing capital controls. Such controls will mean that Turkey will not pay back principals amounting to 400 Bn. $ and the interests on it.

Couldn’t the damage of a major default in Turkey be contained?
We saw in the past that when credit stops to flow to one big emerging market, it tends to stop flowing to all of them. In Eastern Europe, there are lots of countries with large current account deficits and currency links to the Euro. They need to be importing capital, but I fear it will stop flowing there.
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Old 23rd August 2015, 10:52   #104 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

From Huriyet:
Extract: "... If you ask me, Turkey is on the verge of evolving into a hot potato.

If our political leaders were a little less constipated, we might have had a new government after the June election. Alas, they have failed us, and we are heading towards a snap election under a rapidly deteriorating security situation. I’m afraid to say there is nothing to prevent the lira from a free fall."

Full: Whatever happened to the Turkish Lira? - GÜVEN SAK

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Old 24th August 2015, 07:38   #105 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

Informative posts by Immac there. We dithered last year in the hope things would improve, we were wrong. Hindsight always gives you 20-20 vision.

Just bitten the bullet in the last couple of weeks and changed our lira savings to GBP. Yes we've taken a hit, but the way things are going, in our opinion, it would have been foolish to wait any longer.
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Old 24th August 2015, 19:39   #106 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

Im not educated enough to know about politics and how it effect the lira or economy we are back in the uk and have left the our savings in lira and spend them when we come over and keep hoping that it recovers, we dont need these savings at present but might need to pay for things in lira in the future in turkey, are we doing the right thing not changing our savings back to pounds and using them in turkey or is there some hidden risks at doing that.
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Old 24th August 2015, 19:56   #107 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

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Originally Posted by missmo View Post
Im not educated enough to know about politics and how it effect the lira or economy we are back in the uk and have left the our savings in lira and spend them when we come over and keep hoping that it recovers, we dont need these savings at present but might need to pay for things in lira in the future in turkey, are we doing the right thing not changing our savings back to pounds and using them in turkey or is there some hidden risks at doing that.
Now is just not the time to change lira back to sterling.

But now is the right time to buy lira, but then you have to hope that when the time comes that you want to change it back to sterling again that the rate has dropped, obviously providing you are prepared to take the gamble that it does drop and does not increase.

The only time people lose or gain with Lira vs Sterling is when they exchange them, until then you are simply sitting on a time bomb not knowing what will happen or when it will happen, or IF it will happen.
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Old 24th August 2015, 21:00   #108 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

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Originally Posted by missmo View Post
Im not educated enough to know about politics and how it effect the lira or economy we are back in the uk and have left the our savings in lira and spend them when we come over and keep hoping that it recovers, we dont need these savings at present but might need to pay for things in lira in the future in turkey, are we doing the right thing not changing our savings back to pounds and using them in turkey or is there some hidden risks at doing that.
"left our savings"
hope its not all your savings. never put all your eggs in one basket or so they say
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Old 24th August 2015, 23:30   #109 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

No not all just what we had in turkey when we left,i understand that we would loose by the exchange rate if we change it back into pounds but by leaving it over there is there any other way we can loose our money if there is civil war in turkey
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Old 24th August 2015, 23:41   #110 (permalink)
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Re: Watch The Lira Now

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Originally Posted by missmo View Post
No not all just what we had in turkey when we left,i understand that we would loose by the exchange rate if we change it back into pounds but by leaving it over there is there any other way we can loose our money if there is civil war in turkey
No, I don't think you will regarding a civil war . The lira will of course be unstable during the period leading to maybe futher losses . But even a civil war isn't a done deal yet DON'T panic .IMHO
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