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Old 11th February 2019, 10:41   #1 (permalink)
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Brexit Guide

Brexit: All you need to know about the UK leaving the EU.

What does Brexit mean?
It is a word that is used as a shorthand way of saying the UK leaving the EU - merging the words Britain and exit to get Brexit, in the same way as a possible Greek exit from the euro was dubbed Grexit in the past. Further reading: The rise of the word Brexit

Why is Britain leaving the European Union?
A referendum - a vote in which everyone (or nearly everyone) of voting age can take part - was held on Thursday 23 June, 2016, to decide whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union. Leave won by 51.9% to 48.1%. The referendum turnout was 71.8%, with more than 30 million people voting.


What was the breakdown across the UK?
England voted for Brexit, by 53.4% to 46.6%. Wales also voted for Brexit, with Leave getting 52.5% of the vote and Remain 47.5%. Scotland and Northern Ireland both backed staying in the EU. Scotland backed Remain by 62% to 38%, while 55.8% in Northern Ireland voted Remain and 44.2% Leave. See the results in more detail.

What is the European Union?
The European Union - often known as the EU - is an economic and political partnership involving 28 European countries (click here if you want to see the full list). It began after World War Two to foster economic co-operation, with the idea that countries which trade together were more likely to avoid going to war with each other.

It has since grown to become a "single market" allowing goods and people to move around, basically as if the member states were one country. It has its own currency, the euro, which is used by 19 of the member countries, its own parliament and it now sets rules in a wide range of areas - including on the environment, transport, consumer rights and even things such as mobile phone charges. Click here for a beginners' guide to how the EU works.

When is the UK due to leave the EU?
For the UK to leave the EU it had to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which gives the two sides two years to agree the terms of the split. Theresa May triggered this process on 29 March, 2017, meaning the UK is scheduled to leave at 11pm UK time on Friday, 29 March 2019. A European court has ruled that the UK can decide to halt the process and stay in the EU at any time up to the deadline. Alternatively the process can be extended if all 28 EU members agree. But at the moment all sides are focusing on that date as being the key one, and Theresa May has put it into British law.

So is Brexit definitely happening?
As things stand, the UK is due to leave the European Union on 29 March, 2019, regardless of whether there is a deal with the EU or not.

But could Brexit be cancelled?
Yes. Stopping Brexit would require a change in the law in the UK, something neither the government nor the main UK opposition parties want to do at this point. The European Court of Justice ruled on 10 December 2018 that the UK could cancel the Article 50 Brexit process without the permission of the other 27 EU members, and remain a member of the EU on its existing terms, provided the decision followed a "democratic process", in other words, if Parliament voted for it.

Could Brexit be delayed?
Possibly. The EU might agree to extend Article 50 if its leaders thought it would help smooth the process or if there was a chance the UK could end up staying in, possibly through another referendum, but it would only be by a few months. The UK's main opposition party, Labour, wants to force a general election and, after winning it, go back to Brussels to negotiate its version of Brexit. That would also require Brexit day being pushed back from 29 March. Labour has kept open the option of pushing for another referendum, which would also need an extension. Some government ministers have also been talking about asking the EU for an extension of a few weeks to get all the necessary legislation through Parliament

Could there be another referendum?
It would have to be put into law by the government, which they have said they will not do. They could be forced into holding another referendum if enough MPs voted for it. Dozens of Labour MPs want another referendum, as do a smaller number of Conservatives and most of the minor parties in the House of Commons. But without the official support of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who could order all Labour MPs to vote for it, those campaigning for another public vote say they do not currently have the numbers to get it through. Mr Corbyn has not ruled out getting behind another referendum but he wants to explore other options, such as toppling the government and forcing a general election, first.

Why do politicians want a deal?
The main point of having a deal between the UK and the EU is to ensure as smooth as possible an exit from the EU for businesses and individuals - and to allow time for the two sides to hammer out a permanent trading relationship.

What is in Theresa May's deal with the EU?
After months of negotiation, the UK and EU agreed a Brexit deal. It comes in two parts.

A 585-page withdrawal agreement. This is a legally-binding text that sets the terms of the UK's divorce from the EU. It covers how much money the UK owes the EU - an estimated 39bn - and what happens to UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU and EU citizens living in the UK. It also proposes a method of avoiding the return of a physical Northern Ireland border.

https://assets.publishing.service.go..._Community.pdf

Here's a guide to the Brexit withdrawal agreement
A 26-page statement on future relations. This is not legally-binding and sketches out the kind of long-term relationship the UK and EU want to have in a range of areas, including trade, defence and security.

https://assets.publishing.service.go..._Kingdom__.pdf

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46237012

Here's a guide to the declaration on future relations
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46303751

What is the transition period?
It refers to a period of time after 29 March, 2019, to 31 December, 2020 (or possibly later), to get everything in place and allow businesses and others to prepare for the moment when the new post-Brexit rules between the UK and the EU begin. It also allows more time for the details of the new relationship to be fully hammered out.

Free movement will continue during the transition period, as the EU wanted. The UK will be able to strike its own trade deals - although they won't be able to come into force until 1 January 2021. This transition period is currently only due to happen if the UK and the EU agree a Brexit deal.

Could we leave without a deal?
Yes. This is the so-called no-deal Brexit.

What would happen if the UK left without a deal?
The UK would sever all ties with the EU with immediate effect, with no transition period and no guarantees on citizens' rights of residence. The government fears this would cause significant disruption to businesses in the short-term, with lengthy tailbacks of lorries at the channel ports, as drivers face new checks on their cargos.

Food retailers have warned of shortages of fresh produce and the NHS is stockpiling medicines, in case supplies from EU countries are interrupted. Government ministers and multinational companies with factories in the UK have also warned about the long-term impact on the British economy. Brexit-supporting MPs claim it would not be as bad as they say and the UK would save on the 39bn divorce bill, as well as being free to strike its own beneficial trade deals around the world.

Would trade with the EU continue?
The World Trade Organization sets rules for countries that don't have free trade deals with each other, including tariffs - the taxes charged on the import of goods. Without an agreement on trade, the UK would trade with the EU under World Trade Organization rules.


Is Theresa May's Brexit deal now dead?
Theresa May's deal cannot come into effect until it has been passed by Parliament. She had planned to put it to the vote on 11 December but pulled it at the last minute because she was facing a big defeat. She did put it to the vote on 15 January 2019, after seeking "further reassurances" on MPs' concerns from the EU, and suffered a big defeat - the biggest for a sitting government in Parliamentary history in fact. She lost by 230 votes.

The deal is not dead, however. Mrs May survived an attempt the following day by Labour to oust her as prime minister, with all the 118 Conservative MPs who had voted against her deal voting to keep her in power. They say they want her to have another go at getting a better deal from the EU, something she had previously insisted was not possible.

So what is happening now?
Mrs May is trying to get a better deal from the EU. She wants to get changes to the legal text she agreed with the 27 other member states. MPs held a series of votes on 29 January on potential changes to Mrs May's deal. Most - including a bid to delay Brexit to prevent a no-deal departure - were defeated.

MPs did back a call for the government to rule out a no-deal Brexit, but it was non-binding and Mrs May has repeatedly insisted that the only way to ensure no deal is to back a deal.

The key vote for the prime minister was when MPs backed a call to replace the controversial Northern Ireland backstop clause with "alternative" arrangements. Mrs May believes the backstop is the main reason so many of her MPs and Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party, who she relies on to support her in key Commons votes, are against her deal.

She has promised to return to the Commons by 13 February at the latest with fresh proposals, which will be put to the vote. MPs will again be able to suggest alternatives, including, for example, delaying Brexit or holding another referendum.

Can the PM succeed in modifying the deal?
The EU has insisted it will not alter the legal text it has agreed with the UK and that the controversial Northern Ireland backstop is part and parcel of that. The UK side hopes they will cave in at the last minute and agree to changes, when faced with the prospect of a no-deal Brexit.

What is the backstop?

When the UK leaves the EU, the 310-mile border between Ireland and Northern Ireland will become the land border between the UK and the European Union.

Neither side wants to see a return to checkpoints, towers, customs posts or surveillance cameras at the border, in case it reignites the Troubles and disrupts the free cross-border flow of trade and people. But they can't agree on a way to do that.

The UK and EU agreed to put in place a "backstop" - a kind of safety net to ensure there is no hard border whatever the outcome of future trade talks between the UK and the EU.

The backstop agreed between the two parties would keep Northern Ireland aligned to some EU rules on things like food products and goods standards. That would prevent the need for checks on goods at the Irish border, but would require some products being brought to Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK to be subject to new checks and controls.

The backstop would also involve a temporary single customs territory, effectively keeping the whole of the UK in the EU customs union. If future trade talks broke down without a deal, the backstop would apply indefinitely. The arrangement would end only with the agreement of both the UK and the EU.

Why are so many MPs against it?
They fear it could leave Britain tied to the EU indefinitely with no say over its rules and no ability to strike trade deals with other countries.

Are there any solutions to it?
If there was an obvious solution that people agreed guaranteed no return of a hard border in Ireland it would probably have been implemented by now. However, Mrs May has said she wants to talk to the EU about possible alternatives. These include a "trusted trader" scheme to avoid physical checks on goods flowing through the border, "mutual recognition" of rules with the EU and "technological" solutions.

She also wants to discuss a time limit on the backstop and a "unilateral exit" mechanism. All of these options have previously been ruled out by the EU.

What happens if Mrs May can't get the deal through the Commons?
It is hard to say for certain. There are number of possible scenarios, including:

Leaving the EU without a deal
Another EU referendum (this can only happen if the government brings forward legislation to hold one and a majority in the Commons supports it)

A general election - Labour's preferred option but it would need a no-confidence vote in the PM to be passed
MPs could take control of the Brexit process from the government

Some of these options would involve delaying the official Brexit date of 29 March by a few months to allow time to renegotiate a deal, if the EU agrees to that

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887
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Old 11th February 2019, 10:43   #2 (permalink)
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Re: Brexit Guide

I posted this guide because the other thread has expanded and it would have got lost in the middle of it, and as it looks to be a good guide, and some members may be interested in it, it is here.
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Old 11th February 2019, 10:59   #3 (permalink)
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Re: Brexit Guide

Good stuff Norm , th problem with May and her one and only possible deals is that she can never have a definitive deal as she does not know what she wants , and even then she signs deals then reneges on the actuality . The EU do not trust her or her word , that is a fact , they know until Parliament assents a non amendable act , then she can agree nothing , that baldy is a fact .

Paper , rock , scissors behind smoke and a few mirrors in Westminster .

Who knows

Steve
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Old 11th February 2019, 11:26   #4 (permalink)
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Re: Brexit Guide

Quote:
Originally Posted by Akasya View Post
Good stuff Norm , th problem with May and her one and only possible deals is that she can never have a definitive deal as she does not know what she wants , and even then she signs deals then reneges on the actuality . The EU do not trust her or her word , that is a fact , they know until Parliament assents a non amendable act , then she can agree nothing , that baldy is a fact .

Paper , rock , scissors behind smoke and a few mirrors in Westminster .

Who knows

Steve
I would say the EU doesn't trust the UK, never mind not trusting May but I would also say, none of the 28 trusts Brussels either.
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Old 11th February 2019, 11:34   #5 (permalink)
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Re: Brexit Guide

How can the EU trust the UK when they WELCH on a deal ?
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Old 11th February 2019, 11:36   #6 (permalink)
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Re: Brexit Guide

Lol

Mayhem signed the deal then not only welched on it -but then opposed her own deal !!

And they wonder why Ireland demands a backstop!!!!

I wouldn't trust them with my cat
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Old 11th February 2019, 12:25   #7 (permalink)
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Re: Brexit Guide

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Originally Posted by saoirse View Post
Lol

Mayhem signed the deal then not only welched on it -but then opposed her own deal !!

And they wonder why Ireland demands a backstop!!!!

I wouldn't trust them with my cat
She signed knowing it would have to be ratified by the UKs parliament & as we know it wasn’t. Likewise the deal would have to be ratified by the other 27 members.
There’s many agreements agreed upon but rejected by share holders. Parliaments reflection should’ve IMO made TM resign, just like a company director would’ve. On saying that, many issues are rejected by various parliaments and heads don’t roll anymore.

BTW, Mays/EU deal wasn't ratified by the EU parliament either & that's still on going.

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Old 11th February 2019, 13:50   #8 (permalink)
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Re: Brexit Guide

You can only welch on something when you have agreed something, therefore all involved knew the score that it was not a deal, it was something to take back and try to get ratified. Just because she came back with something does not mean that the all the EU states would have agreed to it. Spain springs to mind as a potential problem. If the UK and The EU, as in all 28 had agreed a deal, then May had tried to alter it, then she would have welched, as it stands nothing is or has been set in stone, it is still being negotiated. Therefore trust does not come into it, they are politicians and they know that any deal worked out has then to be sold to all member states and hopefully no one will veto it.
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Old 11th February 2019, 13:59   #9 (permalink)
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Re: Brexit Guide

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Originally Posted by Brexiteer View Post
You can only welch on something when you have agreed something, therefore all involved knew the score that it was not a deal, it was something to take back and try to get ratified. Just because she came back with something does not mean that the all the EU states would have agreed to it. Spain springs to mind as a potential problem. If the UK and The EU, as in all 28 had agreed a deal, then May had tried to alter it, then she would have welched, as it stands nothing is or has been set in stone, it is still being negotiated. Therefore trust does not come into it, they are politicians and they know that any deal worked out has then to be sold to all member states and hopefully no one will veto it.
There are lists now being produced about job loses right across the EU over a no deal Brexit. I'm sure those member states citizens who face such a prospect may well be asking their own leaders, "why no deal"?
So on the one hand its about protecting the Single Market & the irony is, on the other hand it could well cost thousands of jobs to do it. Doesn't the Single Market include jobs or is it just trade? Hand in glove maybe.
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Old 11th February 2019, 15:01   #10 (permalink)
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Re: Brexit Guide

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brexiteer View Post
You can only welch on something when you have agreed something, therefore all involved knew the score that it was not a deal, it was something to take back and try to get ratified. Just because she came back with something does not mean that the all the EU states would have agreed to it. Spain springs to mind as a potential problem. If the UK and The EU, as in all 28 had agreed a deal, then May had tried to alter it, then she would have welched, as it stands nothing is or has been set in stone, it is still being negotiated. Therefore trust does not come into it, they are politicians and they know that any deal worked out has then to be sold to all member states and hopefully no one will veto it.
May stated it was a deal , the only deal , she agreed it in writing and ratified it

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8678561.html

Theresa May has said her Brexit deal is “the only deal available” and that the controversial Northern Ireland backstop is “necessary” after being rebuffed in a meeting with Angela Merkel and other EU leaders on Tuesday.

There was no option for any other deal she stated repeatedly .

Then she failed .

We agreed , we failed our word and the world laughed at our stupidity .

Steve

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